Fixing Everton (part 5) - the final lineup
I've always been of the opinion that the Koeman/Walsh spree put us back 3 seasons. We spent huge money on players and handed out long contracts to peak age players who will prove almost impossible to shift.
We probably can't just rip everything up and go straight to the new lineup with 5 new signings.
So I'm going to try and be realistic about who will and won't be replaceable and how quickly.
Where names are suggested they are only illustrative of the skills I want from that position.
Our current formation is pretty much a 4-2-4 given where Gylfi actually positions himself and the type of work he does.
In the long term I expect us to move towards a 4-3-3 but I don't think we can make the leap with the squad we have. The combination of midfield skills is wrong.
Also a formation in itself doesn't tell you an awful lot about how a team plays. Even the "extremes" of the dominate by possession Guardiola approach and the dominate the space Klopp approach both seem to result in dominating both the ball and the space.
I think Silva probably is more of the Klopp school in that he favours quick transitions from defence or midfield to attack rather than patient circulation of the ball.
So for our midfield mix I think the attributes we are looking for are:
the ability to play accurate forwards passes
ball winning ability to shield the defence when possession is lost
high energy
Mapping attributes on to positions and formations
My long winded first 4 parts looked at the players Everton have at their disposal and I concluded that we don't have the midfield I'd want at the moment to play in a 4-3-3.
I want therefore to look at alternative formations used by PL teams and find the one best suited to our current playing squad allowing a maximum of one additional player.
With or without Gana and Sigurdsson?
Regarded by many (wrongly in my opinion but the weight of numbers are against me) as our best two players. I've written about the problem with Gylfi before. He is a good footballer but doesn't fit into the front 3 of a fast breaking 4-3-3, doesn't get involved enough in build up from deeper in the midfield 3.
Gana again has great attributes but flaws with his forward passing make it easy for opponents to shut down Everton's passing options.
To make things realistic I'm going to say I have to include both these players in next years lineup.
So what is the 2019-20 formation that works with those restrictions?
Including Gylfi and Gana rules out 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1, used by most of the top clubs. But what about the Spurs formation?
When I look at Spurs what attributes do their players have?
Spurs seem to use the 4-Diamond-2 formation.
2 strong centre backs, 2 full backs who provide the width, a deep ball winner, one box to box midfielder, 1 creative linking player, 1 pressing creator, a roving forward who provides width on either side of a central goalscorer.
Match those up with the Everton squad and you get a fairly close match to attributes we have in the squad.
The most important first step - gap analysis
I think the areas of the squad most lacking in appropriate players for this style are:
A flank dominating right back
The forwards
In the summer of 2019 we will release Jagielka, Baines and Williams.
This should free up some wage space for one big purchase.
And I would spend the money on a right back. Someone like Youcef Atal, who very much reminds me of the player Seamus was.
That domination of the right flank will allow us to remove the right sided attacker and put the additional linking midfielder in. So when Gana receives the ball, and Gomes is cut off, he has better passing options.
It leaves us with a Coleman contract problem with 3.5 years left. Everybody rightly loves Seamus Coleman. I just can't see him getting back to what he could do 4 years ago. Time and injury catches up with everyone.
The forwards will be an issue too as the Spurs players are just better. But I think less of a problem than the full back area. I also think having less players up front and more creators deeper would see an increase in chances created.
Stop reading now if you don't like tactics stuff
Mapping Everton players with those attributes onto the formation.
Richarlison as Kane, Lookman as Son, Sigurdsson as Dele and Vlasic as the Eriksen type.
2020 sees the departure from the wage bill of Cuco Martina, Luke Garbutt, Brendan Galloway, Kevin Mirallas, James McCarthy and Oumar Niasse. After the celebrations die down we should have enough money to upgrade that central midfield pivot position.
Once Gana has been upgraded to an equally good covering player with better passing (Diawara of Napoli as an example) then the 4-3-3 can be reconsidered. The Sigurdsson position can be taken by an additional player along the lines of Chukwueze to give our rampaging right back a rest.
Summer 2021 sees the likes of Bolasie, Schneiderlin, Sandro and many others off the wage bill and we can then reassess the midfield.
Squad building
Squad building is, to me, the most important part of football management (rather than coaching). I have been a vociferous critic of the post-Moyes approach. As it stands we'll be carrying several players like Coleman, Walcott, Sigurdssson well beyond the point at which they are likely to have declined beyond their value to the team.
I understand football isn't just a spreadsheet exercise and real people are involved. It is never as easy as people like me make it out to be, but if you are offering £6m a year, 5 year contracts to 28 year olds coming back from career threatening injuries it will come back to bite you. It was only a decade ago when we were having to sell players to fend of creditors. You only have to watch the Sunderland documentary on Netflix to see the legacy of bad decisions, particularly when, like Everton, you are reliant on the funding of an individual.
It isn't only Coleman, Walcott was our third right winger signed post peak age (after Lennon and Bolasie) which represents £50m in transfer fees and about £40m in wage commitments for next to no resale value. Sigurdsson at £45m and £100k a week for 5 years will also be a financial headache in years to come.
At some point signings like this have to stop (hopefully that point was the summer) and some serious long term squad planning has to happen.
We probably can't just rip everything up and go straight to the new lineup with 5 new signings.
So I'm going to try and be realistic about who will and won't be replaceable and how quickly.
Where names are suggested they are only illustrative of the skills I want from that position.
Our current formation is pretty much a 4-2-4 given where Gylfi actually positions himself and the type of work he does.
In the long term I expect us to move towards a 4-3-3 but I don't think we can make the leap with the squad we have. The combination of midfield skills is wrong.
Also a formation in itself doesn't tell you an awful lot about how a team plays. Even the "extremes" of the dominate by possession Guardiola approach and the dominate the space Klopp approach both seem to result in dominating both the ball and the space.
I think Silva probably is more of the Klopp school in that he favours quick transitions from defence or midfield to attack rather than patient circulation of the ball.
So for our midfield mix I think the attributes we are looking for are:
the ability to play accurate forwards passes
ball winning ability to shield the defence when possession is lost
high energy
Mapping attributes on to positions and formations
My long winded first 4 parts looked at the players Everton have at their disposal and I concluded that we don't have the midfield I'd want at the moment to play in a 4-3-3.
I want therefore to look at alternative formations used by PL teams and find the one best suited to our current playing squad allowing a maximum of one additional player.
With or without Gana and Sigurdsson?
Regarded by many (wrongly in my opinion but the weight of numbers are against me) as our best two players. I've written about the problem with Gylfi before. He is a good footballer but doesn't fit into the front 3 of a fast breaking 4-3-3, doesn't get involved enough in build up from deeper in the midfield 3.
Gana again has great attributes but flaws with his forward passing make it easy for opponents to shut down Everton's passing options.
To make things realistic I'm going to say I have to include both these players in next years lineup.
So what is the 2019-20 formation that works with those restrictions?
Including Gylfi and Gana rules out 4-3-3 and 4-2-3-1, used by most of the top clubs. But what about the Spurs formation?
When I look at Spurs what attributes do their players have?
Spurs seem to use the 4-Diamond-2 formation.
2 strong centre backs, 2 full backs who provide the width, a deep ball winner, one box to box midfielder, 1 creative linking player, 1 pressing creator, a roving forward who provides width on either side of a central goalscorer.
Match those up with the Everton squad and you get a fairly close match to attributes we have in the squad.
The most important first step - gap analysis
I think the areas of the squad most lacking in appropriate players for this style are:
A flank dominating right back
The forwards
In the summer of 2019 we will release Jagielka, Baines and Williams.
This should free up some wage space for one big purchase.
And I would spend the money on a right back. Someone like Youcef Atal, who very much reminds me of the player Seamus was.
That domination of the right flank will allow us to remove the right sided attacker and put the additional linking midfielder in. So when Gana receives the ball, and Gomes is cut off, he has better passing options.
It leaves us with a Coleman contract problem with 3.5 years left. Everybody rightly loves Seamus Coleman. I just can't see him getting back to what he could do 4 years ago. Time and injury catches up with everyone.
The forwards will be an issue too as the Spurs players are just better. But I think less of a problem than the full back area. I also think having less players up front and more creators deeper would see an increase in chances created.
Stop reading now if you don't like tactics stuff
Mapping Everton players with those attributes onto the formation.
Richarlison as Kane, Lookman as Son, Sigurdsson as Dele and Vlasic as the Eriksen type.
2020 sees the departure from the wage bill of Cuco Martina, Luke Garbutt, Brendan Galloway, Kevin Mirallas, James McCarthy and Oumar Niasse. After the celebrations die down we should have enough money to upgrade that central midfield pivot position.
Once Gana has been upgraded to an equally good covering player with better passing (Diawara of Napoli as an example) then the 4-3-3 can be reconsidered. The Sigurdsson position can be taken by an additional player along the lines of Chukwueze to give our rampaging right back a rest.
Summer 2021 sees the likes of Bolasie, Schneiderlin, Sandro and many others off the wage bill and we can then reassess the midfield.
Squad building
Squad building is, to me, the most important part of football management (rather than coaching). I have been a vociferous critic of the post-Moyes approach. As it stands we'll be carrying several players like Coleman, Walcott, Sigurdssson well beyond the point at which they are likely to have declined beyond their value to the team.
I understand football isn't just a spreadsheet exercise and real people are involved. It is never as easy as people like me make it out to be, but if you are offering £6m a year, 5 year contracts to 28 year olds coming back from career threatening injuries it will come back to bite you. It was only a decade ago when we were having to sell players to fend of creditors. You only have to watch the Sunderland documentary on Netflix to see the legacy of bad decisions, particularly when, like Everton, you are reliant on the funding of an individual.
It isn't only Coleman, Walcott was our third right winger signed post peak age (after Lennon and Bolasie) which represents £50m in transfer fees and about £40m in wage commitments for next to no resale value. Sigurdsson at £45m and £100k a week for 5 years will also be a financial headache in years to come.
At some point signings like this have to stop (hopefully that point was the summer) and some serious long term squad planning has to happen.
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