How to fix Stoke - Part 1
When I look at football clubs, from the outside, it seems to me that often passion and panic are the biggest problem owners have. Most people go into the game as owners because they love it. They want a winning team, they certainly don't want to be being heckled and booed by their fellow fans.
With that passion comes panic, and panic is where things can go very wrong.
The deadline day clock is ticking down, the manager comes to you at 9pm, he wants that striker he worked with a few years ago, the player, now 29 wants twice what you normally offer for a player of his standard. The manager is convinced he could do a job for you, you need points quickly, relegation would be devastating emotionally and financially. You sanction the deal.
The next morning your phone starts ringing. The other players know what the new player is on, higher wage demands come in. The new player starts training and it is clear that he has lost half a yard of pace in the last few years, but he wasn't being watched by your scouts or your analytics team so you didn't know.
Suddenly that 4 year contract has caused a ripple effect and your whole squad is being paid more.
That extra spend means you have to cut back and miss out on some younger players you had been tracking. The higher wages mean you can't shift existing squad members. They won't take the paycut, you paid well over the odds.
The whole squad starts to decline, and results follow. You sack the manager, annoyed that he wasted your money, the replacement is an experienced campaigner with a good track record in the league. He comes to you and complains that the squad need a boost. He knows a player he used to work with, getting on a bit now, but a good leader who can rally the troops. He won't come cheap mind......
And this is how you end up with a squad like Stoke City have.
23 players have appeared this season.
<=20 years old = 696 minutes (Thomas Edwards and, briefly, Tyrese Campbell)
21-24 years old = 1001 minutes (Etebo)
25-28 years old = 14430 (11 players)
29+ = 9550 (9 players)
Of the core XI in terms of minutes played:
Butland 25
Martina - 29
Shawcross 31
Williams 34
Pieters 30
Woods 25
Clucas 28
Allan 28
McClean 29
Afobe 25
Ince 26
Average age - 28.1
Excluding goalkeeper - 28.5 (I often exclude the goalkeeper as their age related performance declines slower than outfield players)
Only Bolton Wanderers and Middlesbrough regularly field older line ups with Bolton reaching an average age of nearly 31 on some occasions!
So how does the team play.
Using my very basic (I'm ashamed to even call it a model) model.
Lack of Understat for the Championship slightly ruins it as I have no pressing or xG per shot figures which form the basis of it, but I'll go with what I've got.
Total passes per game: 453 (above league average)
Long balls as a percentage of passes: 16%
Crosses as a percentage of passes: 5%
Open play shots as a pecentage of total shots 70%
Don't have xG for Stoke shots so will go with:
Shots per game 11.8
Shots on target 3.8
On target/attempted = 32%
Generally come across as a side that passes more than you would expect, keeps the ball reasonably but doesn't create much in terms of good chances. In summary they are pretty average Championship team.
The next thing to look at is contract length. I generally start with the fringe players on high wages and long contracts to see just how bad the situation is, and it looks pretty bad!
Saido Berahino (£10m signing) is contracted until 2022.
Kevin Wimmer (£18m signing) is contracted until 2022.
Badou Ndiaye (£14m signing) is contracted until 2022.
Moritz Bauer (£5m signing) is contracted until 2022.
Giannelli Imbula (£18m signing) is contracted until 2021.
Bojan until 2020.
Mame Diouf until 2020.
Geoff Cameron until 2020.
Out of contract or end of loan at end of season:
Ashley Williams
Cuco Martina
Peter Crouch
Charlie Adam
Ibrahim Afellay
Darren Fletcher
Tyrese Campbell
Which leaves us with a core 2019/20 squad of:
Jack Butland (26 that season)
Joe Allan (29)
Ryan Shawcross (32)
Tom Ince (27)
Ryan Woods (26)
Erik Pieters (31)
Bruno Martins Indi (27)
Benik Afobe (26)
James McClean (30) (4 year deal at 29!)
Peter Etebo (24)
Sam Clucas (29)
Thomas Edwards (20)
plus any of the long term contracted players who we wanted to reintegrate.
It doesn't look a great starting point for any new manager but there is hope.
Very wealthy owners and a fairly solid core of experienced players.
Part 2 will look at the attribute of the core players and examine the type of players they will need around them to thrive.
With that passion comes panic, and panic is where things can go very wrong.
The deadline day clock is ticking down, the manager comes to you at 9pm, he wants that striker he worked with a few years ago, the player, now 29 wants twice what you normally offer for a player of his standard. The manager is convinced he could do a job for you, you need points quickly, relegation would be devastating emotionally and financially. You sanction the deal.
The next morning your phone starts ringing. The other players know what the new player is on, higher wage demands come in. The new player starts training and it is clear that he has lost half a yard of pace in the last few years, but he wasn't being watched by your scouts or your analytics team so you didn't know.
Suddenly that 4 year contract has caused a ripple effect and your whole squad is being paid more.
That extra spend means you have to cut back and miss out on some younger players you had been tracking. The higher wages mean you can't shift existing squad members. They won't take the paycut, you paid well over the odds.
The whole squad starts to decline, and results follow. You sack the manager, annoyed that he wasted your money, the replacement is an experienced campaigner with a good track record in the league. He comes to you and complains that the squad need a boost. He knows a player he used to work with, getting on a bit now, but a good leader who can rally the troops. He won't come cheap mind......
And this is how you end up with a squad like Stoke City have.
23 players have appeared this season.
<=20 years old = 696 minutes (Thomas Edwards and, briefly, Tyrese Campbell)
21-24 years old = 1001 minutes (Etebo)
25-28 years old = 14430 (11 players)
29+ = 9550 (9 players)
Of the core XI in terms of minutes played:
Butland 25
Martina - 29
Shawcross 31
Williams 34
Pieters 30
Woods 25
Clucas 28
Allan 28
McClean 29
Afobe 25
Ince 26
Average age - 28.1
Excluding goalkeeper - 28.5 (I often exclude the goalkeeper as their age related performance declines slower than outfield players)
Only Bolton Wanderers and Middlesbrough regularly field older line ups with Bolton reaching an average age of nearly 31 on some occasions!
So how does the team play.
Using my very basic (I'm ashamed to even call it a model) model.
Lack of Understat for the Championship slightly ruins it as I have no pressing or xG per shot figures which form the basis of it, but I'll go with what I've got.
Total passes per game: 453 (above league average)
Long balls as a percentage of passes: 16%
Crosses as a percentage of passes: 5%
Open play shots as a pecentage of total shots 70%
Don't have xG for Stoke shots so will go with:
Shots per game 11.8
Shots on target 3.8
On target/attempted = 32%
Generally come across as a side that passes more than you would expect, keeps the ball reasonably but doesn't create much in terms of good chances. In summary they are pretty average Championship team.
The next thing to look at is contract length. I generally start with the fringe players on high wages and long contracts to see just how bad the situation is, and it looks pretty bad!
Saido Berahino (£10m signing) is contracted until 2022.
Kevin Wimmer (£18m signing) is contracted until 2022.
Badou Ndiaye (£14m signing) is contracted until 2022.
Moritz Bauer (£5m signing) is contracted until 2022.
Giannelli Imbula (£18m signing) is contracted until 2021.
Bojan until 2020.
Mame Diouf until 2020.
Geoff Cameron until 2020.
Out of contract or end of loan at end of season:
Ashley Williams
Cuco Martina
Peter Crouch
Charlie Adam
Ibrahim Afellay
Darren Fletcher
Tyrese Campbell
Which leaves us with a core 2019/20 squad of:
Jack Butland (26 that season)
Joe Allan (29)
Ryan Shawcross (32)
Tom Ince (27)
Ryan Woods (26)
Erik Pieters (31)
Bruno Martins Indi (27)
Benik Afobe (26)
James McClean (30) (4 year deal at 29!)
Peter Etebo (24)
Sam Clucas (29)
Thomas Edwards (20)
plus any of the long term contracted players who we wanted to reintegrate.
It doesn't look a great starting point for any new manager but there is hope.
Very wealthy owners and a fairly solid core of experienced players.
Part 2 will look at the attribute of the core players and examine the type of players they will need around them to thrive.
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