Data scouting: end of season review

At the end of last year, in a period of boredom between contracts, I decided to try my hand at data scouting. I'd always enjoyed the numbers side of football, and wondered how effective just using data available from Wyscout to find promising players could be.

The rules of my game were:
I couldn't have heard of the player already.
They had to be under 22.
The underlying data had to be good, I couldn't just pick on goals/assists, it had to be backed up with the expected output.

I would then watch 5 minutes or so of them in action, in clip form, from Wyscout.

The players I found were:

Ligue 2:
Alexis Claude Maurice
Cheick Doucoure
Florian Aye
Franck Honorat
Christopher Martins Perreira

Serie B
David Okereke
Davide Frattesi

Liga 2
Manu Vallejo
Alejandro Pozo

N1 (French third tier)
Vincent Thill
Moussa Sylla
Maxime Fleury
Youssef Maziz
Mahdi Talal
Nathanael Saintini
Lenny Vallier
Vallere Pollet
Quentin Boisgard

Evidence is here and here.

The immediate successes

My obsession with Ligue 2 as the best value league in world football has not been undermined by taking the plunge and making recommendations. Arguably every player I picked out has gone on to have a breakout season.

Alexis Claude Maurice hit a rich vein of form after my recommendation. He converted that underlying data into consistent output. From a left-sided attacking role he has 14 goals, 3 assists and leads the league for all players in dribbles and take ons, plus comes out almost top on creative passing metrics. He can do it all.

Cheick Doucoure has established himself in the RC Lens midfield at just 19 years old. He leads the league in dribble success per 90 and is very high in all the progressive passing metrics from a deep midfield role. A great all round midfield prospect.

Franck Honorat and Florian Aye have performed admirably for Clermont with Honorat creating a succession of high quality chances that Aye has been finishing. I wasn't as "high" on these two as I was on ACM or Cheick Doucoure but they look good players.

Christopher Martins Perreria (on loan from Lyon) has become one of the leagues best midfielders. I'm not sure he is Lyon good but he is certainly midtable top 5 league good.

Arguably the biggest successes though come from the Italian and Spanish second tiers. I think players from these leagues are harder to scout than those in Ligue 2. The level of competition is less consistent, the physical nature more varied.

David Okereke had played 15 games in the year before in Serie C without great success in terms of output, however his underlying number looked good this season, he seemed to be shooting and creating chances at a good rate. When I watched the clips he ticked every box, great movement, sound technique, the ability to hit hard shots with either foot. Plus good technique and vision. 5 months on and he has 10 goals and ~10 assists (problem with lower league is figures vary, Wyscout say 6 assists, other sources 12!) and is being linked with Juventus and West Ham among others. I like attacking players who get involved with build up play, and Okereke certainly does.

Manu Vallejo of Cadiz stood out for his dribbling numbers. The video clips showed great technique, a stocky build that would allow him to compete physically, and decent athleticism. He continued developing and added goal scoring to his game. Valencia have just signed him for £5m.


Still need to develop

Alejandro Pozo - he started the season and showed up really well on creative attacking statistics, however his season faded away and an injury in February took saw him miss quite a few games. He shows up well on age-adjusted statistic still but I feel he needs more development, particularly with his physique to be a top 5 league player.

Davide Frattesi has played quite well this season, with quite high levels of through passes, smart passes (whatever they are) and deep progressions for a player of his age. He has also made the Italy U20 World Cup squad.


Developing nicely

My collection of third tier French league players have done well too, particularly the attackers.

Vicent Thill has ended up leading the whole league at 19 years old in expected goals plus assists. Maziz (3rd), Boisgard (12th) and Talal (14th). These same players dominate all the constructive passing metrics, in short they are good young players, on loan from Ligue 1 or 2 clubs in the third tier. All I expect to get a shot higher up in the league system next season.

On the defensive side Moussa Sylla got injured quite badly just after I blogged. Despite this only 2 players completed more crosses than him for the whole season! He has amazing athletic ability to get up and down the right flank and cross the ball with nearly 2.5xA in just 16 matches from open play. Might be someone worth keeping an eye on to see how he develops.

Nathanael Saintini was signed by Swiss club Sion for £900k, I could see the potential at the time but didn't think he was ready to play at a higher level. He has gone into their reserves to develop.

Lenny Vallier has produced a decent output from left back. Crossing and dribbling seems OK, not spectacular though, but he may well be worth monitoring at he is behind several decent players at his parent club and could be available on a free.

Finally Maxime Fleury who looked awesome on dribbling stats but not to my eyes moved within the league. He is a good N1 level player but I don't think yet ready for a higher level.


Overall

I think this was a success. Any club who had scouted or purchased any of my Ligue 2 picks would be very happy with the outcome. Okereke and Vallejo will start the season in top 5 European leagues. I hope to see a few of my N1 picks in higher leagues next season.