The value of set pieces

I'm writing this fresh from watching Everton concede three goals from set pieces so it may not be my most rational and well thought through piece.

For those of us with a genuine interest in analytics we know the value of set pieces.

I'm 100% certain that Everton have people within the organisation who know the value of set pieces. I know Everton have a well regarded analytics team. Marcel Brands knows the value of set pieces.

And yet we are conceding a lot of chances from set pieces.

This has huge consequences. The worse you deal with set pieces the more the opposition targets them with you.

The more teams work out how to exploit you weaknesses the more obvious it becomes to opposition scouts and set piece coaches.

It can quickly turn into a negative spiral.

The reason those of us interested in analytics like set pieces are they are one of the few situations in a dynamic game where you can slow everything down. You can easily measure the outcome.

We also all know the examples of where teams have exploited it like Midtjylland.

Everton have set piece specialists in Sigurdsson and Digne.

Yery Mina and Michael Keane are great in the air.

We have the players to be the best team in the league at set pieces and attacking wise we are OK. But defensively we are awful, I make it 14 goals against from set pieces in league and cup.

If we just concentrated on defensive set pieces and reduced them down to league average it would represent reducing that to about 7.

7 goals in the Premier League is roughly 5 points 

Bring that to the best in the league level and it could be worth 9 points, increase the attacking output and you are changing midtable into European places.

A goalkeeper that won you 9 points, or a striker that scored 9 goals would be worth an extra £15m to a team.

Yet you could hire a set piece expert, with an assistant, give them a budget for scouting and continual education for, lets be generous, 6 days of Sandro's wages? I know these people, I could put you in touch with someone today who could explain how to fix the problem because they know exactly what the problems are and they've exploited it already to great impact.

Given that why is there not an active market for set piece specialist coaches? It seems, that despite the value of it being clear, that many coaches choose not to exploit it. Why?

When I took a look through the coaching teams operating in the Premier League so many people seem to work with trusted assistants. I can completely see the logic in this, after all you spend a lot of time with these people and if you have succeeded with them in the past why change things?

But I also think if I were a manager with a massive PL budget and the ability to recruit from anywhere in the world I would also think: "What are the chances that the best goalkeeper coach, fitness manager and set piece expert in the world all happened to be the people I first worked with in the second division in Portugal". By all means keep your team of mates together, I think most people would and understand it, but bring in some outside expertise too.

So does this 'special team' expertise exist? Yes, look at the teams that do really well on set pieces, and it isn't coincidence. Liverpool had a poor year last year with set pieces, recruited experts and are now top.

Now logic says that could well just be coincidence, but a look at the expected numbers on Understat shows otherwise.

Any manager not exploiting set pieces to the maximum is failing in their main task, maximising their chances of winning the game.

Thinking of counter arguments the only one I can think of is the opportunity cost of that training time. But really is there really any level of open play training that can add 10 goals a season difference to your performance? I doubt it.