Moneyball scouting - Part 2 - recency bias
Recency bias means that we tend to put too much significance and value on things that have happened recently and underrate things from the past.
You've probably seen this with a goalkeeper making a few high profile errors in a short period of time and being labeled as 'dodgy' forever more. I know many people who think Fabianski and Szczesny are useless because they let in some bad goals for Arsenal about 7 years ago.
So how does data scouting get around the problem of recency bias?
I've said many times that data scouting shows you how well a player is playing in their current role, in their current system.
And this is actually one of the strengths of data scouting.
Because I can go back in time and find when players have done well in their careers, and when they haven't.
A player who thrived as a central striker in an attacking team with wingers may have spent two seasons on the bench since the new coach came in. That doesn't mean he became a terrible player.
If I were suffering from recency bias I'd forget he existed.
With data scouting, I can look back as far as the data goes.
So, just to try it out I'm going to just use basic Whoscored data and look back to see who was really highly rated in France two seasons ago. I'll then look for players who have struggled since and see if we can see why.
The first name I find that seemed to play a lot that season, and do well, is Valentin Vada, who played for Bordeaux. He was only 20 then, and a quick google finds lots of scouting reports saying how well he was playing. But he is currently on loan at St Etienne after not playing at Bordeaux.
So what went wrong?
Google again helps with fans in the comment section of the article announcing his loan to St Etienne split between those insulting him to those saying he doesn't fit into their manager's tactics and that the club is wasting him. He is out of contract in 2020.
So a potential bargain? The articles from two years ago link him with moves to the giants of Europe, but now he isn't even playing for Bordeaux. But he is only 22 and his contract is running down. He could prove a good signing.
The next name is Faitout Maouassa who had just played 14 games for Nancy at just 18 years old. He was chased by every club around and ended up signing for Rennes.
A google search shows me he played anywhere on the left-hand side of the pitch but saw himself becoming a central midfielder eventually. But he didn't fit in with Rennes, again a google helps me find out that he suffered a dip in form on signing, which he puts down to family problems off the pitch, followed by a change in coach who preferred another player in his position. This year he was loaned out and appears to have regained some form at Nimes. In fact, Newcastle United had a £7m bid rejected by Rennes in the last transfer window. Potentially available for around £10m, which for a versatile French U20 international who had half of Europe after him 18 months ago seems good value.
You've probably seen this with a goalkeeper making a few high profile errors in a short period of time and being labeled as 'dodgy' forever more. I know many people who think Fabianski and Szczesny are useless because they let in some bad goals for Arsenal about 7 years ago.
So how does data scouting get around the problem of recency bias?
I've said many times that data scouting shows you how well a player is playing in their current role, in their current system.
And this is actually one of the strengths of data scouting.
Because I can go back in time and find when players have done well in their careers, and when they haven't.
A player who thrived as a central striker in an attacking team with wingers may have spent two seasons on the bench since the new coach came in. That doesn't mean he became a terrible player.
If I were suffering from recency bias I'd forget he existed.
With data scouting, I can look back as far as the data goes.
So, just to try it out I'm going to just use basic Whoscored data and look back to see who was really highly rated in France two seasons ago. I'll then look for players who have struggled since and see if we can see why.
The first name I find that seemed to play a lot that season, and do well, is Valentin Vada, who played for Bordeaux. He was only 20 then, and a quick google finds lots of scouting reports saying how well he was playing. But he is currently on loan at St Etienne after not playing at Bordeaux.
So what went wrong?
Google again helps with fans in the comment section of the article announcing his loan to St Etienne split between those insulting him to those saying he doesn't fit into their manager's tactics and that the club is wasting him. He is out of contract in 2020.
So a potential bargain? The articles from two years ago link him with moves to the giants of Europe, but now he isn't even playing for Bordeaux. But he is only 22 and his contract is running down. He could prove a good signing.
The next name is Faitout Maouassa who had just played 14 games for Nancy at just 18 years old. He was chased by every club around and ended up signing for Rennes.
A google search shows me he played anywhere on the left-hand side of the pitch but saw himself becoming a central midfielder eventually. But he didn't fit in with Rennes, again a google helps me find out that he suffered a dip in form on signing, which he puts down to family problems off the pitch, followed by a change in coach who preferred another player in his position. This year he was loaned out and appears to have regained some form at Nimes. In fact, Newcastle United had a £7m bid rejected by Rennes in the last transfer window. Potentially available for around £10m, which for a versatile French U20 international who had half of Europe after him 18 months ago seems good value.
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