Set pieces - why the bad news for Everton got worse
In my set pieces article/rant last weekend I mentioned the set piece problems Everton were suffering from.
But it is easy to get caught up in your own clubs problems. So I decided to do a bit more digging to see if we really were that bad. Every club thinks they never score from corners but let them in all the time.
The problem is far worse than I thought.
Figures are from Understat and Footstats.
Understat provides us with a table of expected goals for and against broken down by situation.
I have turned them into lovely graphs for you, which is really nice of me.
First off corners:
To do this I used the expected goals for and against figures from Understat, then the number of corners for and against from Footstats to calculate an expected goals per corner stat.
Teams that are good at corners will have a blue bar above the red line.
The worst expected goal difference per corner, by a mile, is Everton followed by Manchester City (who don't need to worry) and Huddersfield (who are just bad). The good news for Everton is that they seem to be much better at winning corners than conceding them. I dread to think what the situation would be like if we gave away more corners.
Now free kicks.
And here is where the bad news gets worse. On this one I can't adjust for "number of attempts" so this is a total figure.
We are looking at expected goals for and against each club from (non-corner) set pieces.
That Everest like peak, that has broken through the cloud line, soaring majestically on top of the world, belongs to Everton. No other team is anywhere near as bad. Newcastle, Southampton, and perhaps surprisingly to the casual observer, Manchester United aren't great.
What if.
What if Everton were merely league average at set pieces?
If we assume the same number of corners won/lost then we would expect average Everton to have an xg for of 5.65 and against of 4.33, so positive 1.32 more goals scored than conceded from corners.
The actual current xg from corners is -2.71 so the difference is pretty much exactly 4 goals from corners alone.
In 24 games that is a huge amount.
What about set pieces?
On attacking set pieces average Everton actually lose half an expected goal.
On defensive set pieces Everton improve by 2.65 expected goals.
A net gain of 2.15 goals.
Add corners and set pieces together and you have 6.15 goals over just 24 games.
Over a 38 game season: 9.74 goals just by being average.
What if they were the best in the league?
Burnley average 0.07 of an xG per corner.
Multiply that conversion rate with Everton's corner count and you have 9.78 expected goals over 24 games.
Arsenal concede merely 0.015 xG per corner against.
Multiply that with Everton' conceded corner count and you have 1.6xG against in 24 games.
Over a 38 game season that is 15.49 for and 2.53 against, just from corners.
A "best at corners" Everton could end up 12-15 goals a season better off than the current version.
We've paid £40m for players who would be hailed as heroes for that kind of goal haul.
But it is easy to get caught up in your own clubs problems. So I decided to do a bit more digging to see if we really were that bad. Every club thinks they never score from corners but let them in all the time.
The problem is far worse than I thought.
Figures are from Understat and Footstats.
Understat provides us with a table of expected goals for and against broken down by situation.
I have turned them into lovely graphs for you, which is really nice of me.
First off corners:
To do this I used the expected goals for and against figures from Understat, then the number of corners for and against from Footstats to calculate an expected goals per corner stat.
Teams that are good at corners will have a blue bar above the red line.
The worst expected goal difference per corner, by a mile, is Everton followed by Manchester City (who don't need to worry) and Huddersfield (who are just bad). The good news for Everton is that they seem to be much better at winning corners than conceding them. I dread to think what the situation would be like if we gave away more corners.
Now free kicks.
And here is where the bad news gets worse. On this one I can't adjust for "number of attempts" so this is a total figure.
We are looking at expected goals for and against each club from (non-corner) set pieces.
That Everest like peak, that has broken through the cloud line, soaring majestically on top of the world, belongs to Everton. No other team is anywhere near as bad. Newcastle, Southampton, and perhaps surprisingly to the casual observer, Manchester United aren't great.
What if.
What if Everton were merely league average at set pieces?
If we assume the same number of corners won/lost then we would expect average Everton to have an xg for of 5.65 and against of 4.33, so positive 1.32 more goals scored than conceded from corners.
The actual current xg from corners is -2.71 so the difference is pretty much exactly 4 goals from corners alone.
In 24 games that is a huge amount.
What about set pieces?
On attacking set pieces average Everton actually lose half an expected goal.
On defensive set pieces Everton improve by 2.65 expected goals.
A net gain of 2.15 goals.
Add corners and set pieces together and you have 6.15 goals over just 24 games.
Over a 38 game season: 9.74 goals just by being average.
What if they were the best in the league?
Burnley average 0.07 of an xG per corner.
Multiply that conversion rate with Everton's corner count and you have 9.78 expected goals over 24 games.
Arsenal concede merely 0.015 xG per corner against.
Multiply that with Everton' conceded corner count and you have 1.6xG against in 24 games.
Over a 38 game season that is 15.49 for and 2.53 against, just from corners.
A "best at corners" Everton could end up 12-15 goals a season better off than the current version.
We've paid £40m for players who would be hailed as heroes for that kind of goal haul.
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