The cost of FOMO
FOMO (Fear of missing out) seems to be the driving force in a lot of football club recruitment.
There is no logical reason why Premier League squads should contain 70 professional players. In a typical week with 1x first team, 1x U23 and 1xU18 fixture only 33 players will start a game.
Yet almost all PL clubs will continue to sign new players, or renew contracts of youth team players, long after they have shown they have little chance of being first team regulars.
Take Chelsea, they already have Calum Hudson Odoi, Reece James, Ethan Ampadu, Ruben Loftus Cheek, Tammy Abraham and many more in their squad, not playing. Yet they will still bring in 3-4 first team players every season. They've already agreed to sign Pulisic for next season which further reduces the chances of some of their talented youngsters.
And the problem is even worse at youth level with some clubs bringing 10+ youngsters from other clubs in at U15/U16/U17/U18 level every year. In one Everton vs Liverpool youth fixture I watched, 8 of the Liverpool academy players had been signed from other clubs. The chances of any of those kids making it with Liverpool is practically zero.
And the chances get worse with every additional signing.
So why the recruitment frenzy? FOMO.
We mock Blackburn Rovers for allegedly turning down Zidane. How could they have not seen his obvious talent? Yet those of us old enough to remember can think of how Zidane flopped at Euro 96 and was written off as overhyped. He was 24 then. So if all-time greats like him can be hard to judge in their early peak years how can you tell with a 14-year-old?
It is incredibly hard to spot the difference between a player in the top 0.0001% with the top 0.000001%. Particularly at youth level when physical development is not complete, and where teams ability will vary so much. I've seen plenty of 10 goals a game youth products disappear out the game when physical advantages recede or their one trick is easily countered by experienced defenders.
Yet does this FOMO recruitment actually reduce the chances of your existing players making it? Maybe the thing that takes a player from the 0.0001% to the 0.000001% is actually the opportunity to play.
It seems crazy to me that we cream off the best players into massive youth systems at a handful of clubs and therefore reduce their opportunity to actually play competitive football. I know Chelsea do a wonderful job, pre-first team. But the players are ready to play now. Chelsea knows it so gives them huge contracts, which then renders them unaffordable to other clubs. But they don't play and suddenly your 19-year-old first team ready player in 24 but only has short loan spells on their CV.
The problem is even worse in Italy with some big clubs having 27-year-olds on their books with 10+ loan spells but no appearances for their parent club.
So how do you avoid FOMO? Could you forgive yourself if you passed up a youngster who then went on to star elsewhere? Or turned down Zidane because you had Sherwood (who captained you to a title, but that bit gets left out)?
You have to then look at Norwich and Leeds, currently topping the Championship after just actually using the youth products they had in the system. Their managers trusted their academy players and they are delivering. In the interview I watched with Stuart Webber he made clear that there was nothing particularly special about the Norwich youngsters. He said he had League 2 clubs rejecting all of them as too small, too weak, not ready and 6 months later they were all starting in the Championship.
Swansea only turned to Daniel James after massive cost-cutting and 6 months on are turning down £10m bids.
If clubs really do have fear of missing out it should be directed towards wasting youth products already in their system.
Be brave, only offer 45 pro contracts and use the players you have.
There is no logical reason why Premier League squads should contain 70 professional players. In a typical week with 1x first team, 1x U23 and 1xU18 fixture only 33 players will start a game.
Yet almost all PL clubs will continue to sign new players, or renew contracts of youth team players, long after they have shown they have little chance of being first team regulars.
Take Chelsea, they already have Calum Hudson Odoi, Reece James, Ethan Ampadu, Ruben Loftus Cheek, Tammy Abraham and many more in their squad, not playing. Yet they will still bring in 3-4 first team players every season. They've already agreed to sign Pulisic for next season which further reduces the chances of some of their talented youngsters.
And the problem is even worse at youth level with some clubs bringing 10+ youngsters from other clubs in at U15/U16/U17/U18 level every year. In one Everton vs Liverpool youth fixture I watched, 8 of the Liverpool academy players had been signed from other clubs. The chances of any of those kids making it with Liverpool is practically zero.
And the chances get worse with every additional signing.
So why the recruitment frenzy? FOMO.
We mock Blackburn Rovers for allegedly turning down Zidane. How could they have not seen his obvious talent? Yet those of us old enough to remember can think of how Zidane flopped at Euro 96 and was written off as overhyped. He was 24 then. So if all-time greats like him can be hard to judge in their early peak years how can you tell with a 14-year-old?
It is incredibly hard to spot the difference between a player in the top 0.0001% with the top 0.000001%. Particularly at youth level when physical development is not complete, and where teams ability will vary so much. I've seen plenty of 10 goals a game youth products disappear out the game when physical advantages recede or their one trick is easily countered by experienced defenders.
Yet does this FOMO recruitment actually reduce the chances of your existing players making it? Maybe the thing that takes a player from the 0.0001% to the 0.000001% is actually the opportunity to play.
It seems crazy to me that we cream off the best players into massive youth systems at a handful of clubs and therefore reduce their opportunity to actually play competitive football. I know Chelsea do a wonderful job, pre-first team. But the players are ready to play now. Chelsea knows it so gives them huge contracts, which then renders them unaffordable to other clubs. But they don't play and suddenly your 19-year-old first team ready player in 24 but only has short loan spells on their CV.
The problem is even worse in Italy with some big clubs having 27-year-olds on their books with 10+ loan spells but no appearances for their parent club.
So how do you avoid FOMO? Could you forgive yourself if you passed up a youngster who then went on to star elsewhere? Or turned down Zidane because you had Sherwood (who captained you to a title, but that bit gets left out)?
You have to then look at Norwich and Leeds, currently topping the Championship after just actually using the youth products they had in the system. Their managers trusted their academy players and they are delivering. In the interview I watched with Stuart Webber he made clear that there was nothing particularly special about the Norwich youngsters. He said he had League 2 clubs rejecting all of them as too small, too weak, not ready and 6 months later they were all starting in the Championship.
Swansea only turned to Daniel James after massive cost-cutting and 6 months on are turning down £10m bids.
If clubs really do have fear of missing out it should be directed towards wasting youth products already in their system.
Be brave, only offer 45 pro contracts and use the players you have.
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