A conversation with Jay Socik @blades_analytic

Jay, better known to most as @blades_analytic found some time between his various media appearances and promotion celebrations to chat football with me.

1. Hello, you've become well known in football analytics twitter for your excellent work on EFL data. With the big 5 leagues dominating the stats world you've found a really good way of introducing the concepts lower down the pyramid. How did you first get interested in that side of the game?
   Apr 26Sent

    
2. 

   After studying performance analysis initially at university I traveled to America to coach. Whilst working with jnr academy level teams I found a whole new appreciation for the statistical concepts that dominate major American sports. I found it not only massively increased the quality of my analysis but that in general I was very interested in the data despite being very skeptical at first coming from the background of football knowledge Is in the brain type scenario

    
   Apr 26
3. 

   That's interesting, one of the major complaints you still hear of data in football versus data in US sports is that football is more dynamic and that makes it harder to get useful comparative data between players. Yet time and time again players you identify initially with data, but then your eyes, have gone on to do well. What is your secret with data scouting?
   Apr 26Sent

    
4. 

   I think the key is the marriage between understanding what makes a good player in a specific role and the data that underpins their performances over a certain sample size. In the EFL there is a lot of talented players however the standard "metrics" that can be used to assess those at a higher level I feel aren't as uniformed in the EFL. Teams have such varied styles in the lower leagues that being the centre mid with the most accurate passes per game isn't meccessarily indicative of a good ball retention player, there's such variety in the role an individual van be given that may mask their other attributes. Knowing the leagues, teams and players playing styles is key. Ensuring that you choose the right "event" data metrics is just as key.

    
   Apr 26
5. 

   Yep, agreed, I think when a player has reached the top 5 European leagues you can be assured that they are at a certain technical and physical level. Lower down I find lots of players who are very physically impressive but with less technical skills or vice versa. However there are also plenty of current internationals who were formed in lower divisions or players who have "trained on" when a manager has used them differently.
6. 

   So with all the knowledge of the EFL have you had many opportunities to put this to the test working with any clubs (you don't have to name names)?
   Apr 26Sent

    
7. 

   I have worked with 3 EFL clubs so far on the data side of recruitment. All 3 have been short term investigatory type roles simply carrying out a few exercises on potential recommendations and processes under pinning why those names came up. Its been a complete eye opener. What I've witnessed is that some clubs have their house well in order, have a solid process involving data and scouting flowing up to a single head of dept who links to manager. On the flip side I've seen literally a performance analyst attempting to run opposition analysis and recruitment in a job clearly bumping upwards of 50 hours per week. The EFL, whilst I love the leagues, is a minefield of clubs ran pretty well, clubs ran poorly and those struggling to compete financially who simply don't have time or resource to invest in analysis depts. Some of the key names I recommened to a certain club in the summer went on to be signed by others and have excelled this season. Unfortunately the club I gave those names too either weren't in a position to make the deal or on 1 occasion the manager simply did not like the player from watching him and didn't rate him as high as the data suggested.

    
   Apr 26
8. 

   The variance is amazing, with some clubs buying into the process and others not seeing it as a priority at all. Those of us who like the data side of the game have a hard time understanding why clubs wouldn't want to make use of it but sometimes I don't think we realise how few support staff some clubs have and the budget constraints. That said I know we've spoken before about how we see certain clubs as having a plan (1) identify style of play (2) recruit managers/coaches who play that style (3) recruit players to suit that style. When clubs have that in place they tend to do well, when they chop and change it all goes out the window. Which clubs, other than your own, do you see in the EFL who are following that blueprint?
   Apr 26Sent

    
9. 

   I think the obvious answer here is Brentford. Considering the size of the club, their lack of history at the higher levels of the game and their income the club are doing extraordinary things by fully committing to strategy. It's a unique model and setup that all stems from the owner and his personal success with dats in business. However their recruitment is 2nd to none, they consistently churn out players for low nominal fees who they then sell on for profit all while establishing themselves in the 2nd tier. Other clubs are very closely guarded on their processes but I have to say Bristol City are excellent. A marriage of data input and excellent scouting of young players in the EFL especially means they've established an excellent potential top 6 side that has not only sell on value to ensure sustainability but also growth and depth to continue their progress. The other obvious example Is Norwich who have just constructed a plan under Stuart Webber that couldn't have gone any better this season. To be fair to those at the club they rode the storm last season with a high wage bill, mixed squad, new manager and a pretty average season but they stuck to their coaching philosophy, recruited to that style and used their expertise in an untouched market as it were in the German leagues to secure what have turned out to be exceptional talents at low prices. Its a very German model if you follow the Bundesliga closely and its excelled beyond belief. One final shout would have to go to Lincoln City for complete opposite reasons. Their direct style has been implemented and recruited for specifically, I know Danny and Nicky Cowley were using analysis tools in non league that not many others were and its shown in their rise just how consistent their processes are

    
   Apr 26
10. 

    I'm a huge fan of using undervalued leagues for recruitment, be it Ligue 2 for Brentford or the German second division for Norwich. One of the bigger issues the lower down the leagues you go recruit is the relative lack of data. You must use Wyscout for your own data work given the leagues you cover. How do you find working with their data? Which of your data projects are you most proud of?
    Apr 26Sent

     
11. 

    Currently I'm using wyscout data yes although that may change next season. I think wyscout data as you rightly say covers a breadth of lesser known or accessed leagues and is therefore valuable. However, as with any data source it's important you understand the exact definition of the metrics you're looking at and also you check the video against the metrics too. I think any wyscout user would have been quite shocked by their dribble numbers at first, and their key pass numbers too. It's all about context, understanding what that dataset is recording, does it marry up to your eye test, is it valuable. In terms of my own personal projects there's 2 that stand out as being, in my Opinion, my best work. At the beginning of last season I started an EFL one's to watch series, writing short articles on players to watch from a data and video profile. I highlighted, in particular, Karlan Grant whilst on loan at Crawley Town from Charlton where his numbers were good but his underlying data was exceptional. After watching him I just thought he looked at minimum a championship player. I'm currently working on a model for the whole of the EFL that evaluates defenders in a very different way to standard event data defensive metrics which I think we all agree are not good evaluators of defensive ability.

     
    Apr 27
12. 

    The underlying data bit is the absolute key to analysis in my view. I think most people in football understand that concept deep down - lots of old cliches like "just needs one to go in off his backside" or "worry when you stop getting chances not when you miss them" show that they do. But clubs don't always act rationally, often buying players on big wages on the way down in their careers. What do you think we in the analytics community need to do to better communicate these concepts? Or will there always just be clubs that do things really well, and those that do things badly?
    Apr 27Sent

     
13. 

    Apologies pressing matters in other areas, I think right now football is generational in many ways. Old school or perhaps traditional managers and upper level staff are still quite in the majority in the efl. There is of course growing levels of modernisation and this is creeping into the EFL from higher levels of the game. So right now I think there will always be an element of mis trust or mis information regarding analytics and it's impact. However there is clearly things analytics people can do. I think the main point of contention I've noted has been the context behind the data. It has to make sense in a verbal conversation to a coach or other member of staff. It has to be tangible to reference in a recruitnent conversation or it has to be improbable and trainable if its in an analysis context.

     
    Apr 28
14. 

    Thank you!

     
    Apr 29
15. 

    I think I can forgive a slight gap in messages given your team has gained promotion to the Premier League! Who would you pick out - other than Mr Wilder! - as the most innovative EFL coaches? Do you think we ignore teams doing interesting things tactics and formations wise in the EFL?
    Apr 29Sent

     
16. 

    100% If anything the EFL is a fantastic place for tactics or system observers as there's so much variety, imagination and intelligence. Daniel Farke at Norwich has a fantastic verticality to their passing and movement. They move the the various 3rds and zones with ease and have exceptional fluidity and rotation to their system. Nathan Jones at Luton had an intriguing setup with a 442 diamond that was drilled to perfection. Flying full backs, a midfield 4 who all could interchange and affect both sides of the ball and a mobile but strong and clinical front 2 Forest Green Rovers are also sensational to watch. Its simply pass pass pass at a level where many have pre conceived ideas about long ball teams etc. Forest Green buck that trend by playing a patient possession game and build attacks by retaining the ball. There has been a significant move to lots of teams playing 3 at the back on the EFL. More and more wing backs are becoming the key players and if executed right that system is proving very effective. My final team to point out would be Birmingham under Gary Monk. Admittedly not aesthetically pleasing but for football tactics lovers a real approach and comittment to direct effective football, maximising their attacking strengths and having a proper big man little man combination

     
    Apr 29
17. 

    There is a perception among some PL clubs that they are better loaning players abroad rather than to League 2 clubs because of the football quality and physicality. But I remember Liam Walsh (now at Bristol City) absolutely bossing League Two games at 18 on loan from Everton at Yeovil, and he is a short very skillful player. What are your thoughts on PL loans to EFL clubs? Would you feel too many would lead to the EFL being regarded as a development / feeder club league and losing connections with players, or is the nature of EFL fandom that there is high player turnover anyway?
    Apr 29Sent

     
18. 

    That's probably one of the most current hot topics in the game actually considering for example a Chelsea and the Young players they have. I think I have to be a tad political here and say it very much depends on individual player. Take Dan Crowley currently out in the Dutch Eredivse. He's had loan spells in the EFL but despite his outstanding technical ability his physicality just wasn't right for EFL, or indeed for English game. I think it's worth noting here that many foreign players have remarked that the EPL is much more physical than their own country's leagues. I think its about finding best fit for each player which again data can hugely aid with. Most PL clubs have loan managers now, and I'd fully expect data to part of the review decision to decide if a player would go to an EFL club. I think the nature of the EFL especially financially lends to having these talented PL loans such as Mason Mount, Tammy Abraham but the stage of the loan is key Ben woodburn came to my club with such fanfare and expectation at beginning of season but he just didn't seem to fit and there's a mental maturity to loans that doesn't get looked on often enough. Technically player may be ready for a championship loan but perhaps a L1 or L2 loan (like a Jacob Maddox for example) is the best fit.

     
    17h17 hours ago
19. 

    Finally, on a personal level you have done bits and pieces of work for EFL clubs before. Would you like to work in football full time, if so what would be your ideal role? Or has your starring role on Sky Sports News today turned your head towards media work?
20. 
    16h16 hours agoSent

     
21. 

    Tough one this. 10 years ago when studying analysis at University I had convinced myself that my life and football were basically destined and I'd end up in the game somewhere. For whatever reason that didn't quite work and now I have a great role as an engineering analyst. I think a part of me would always love a job in football, being part of something, a journey and the pride and responsibility that can bring. However I'm also a realist, there's some stunning work being done out there by highly intelligent people and it's a competitive market. I think I'd love the chance to work with for an EFL club even part time but over a season just to see how I could impact and influence them as well as those on me. Until that time the chance to do even 2 minutes of media is obviously fantastic, without being condescending in truly thankful for anyone just like yourself who has ever given me the time of day to just simply state my views on football. In summary, I'd be open to anything, I think I've acquired some great skills and knowledge that could truly benefit an EFL club into making smarter more efficient decisions so I'll await any offers!